The number of single family homes for sale in the Louisville real estate market has skyrocketed in the last several weeks, going from about 3,900 homes for sale in Jefferson County all the way up to well over 5,000 homes, and increase of over 25% in about just one month.  Last week’s measurement had seen the market treading water, without really adding many new listings, but this week saw another rise in the inventory levels for Louisville.  I know a lot of Realtors who are talking to anyone who will listen that we have hit the bottom of our down market, and that its sunny skies ahead.  But with numbers like these, I don’t see much reason to be so optimistic.  Unless there is a huge number of buyers running out to the market soon, which I doubt, this huge influx in inventory will depress prices even more while driving up the amount of time homes are staying on the market.

Louisville homes for sale have seen their asking price drop dramatically from summer highs of around $170,000 down to $150,000 and below.  For the past several weeks, the price of homes for sale in the Louisville real estate market has held steady at $145,000, the lowest value we have seen in over a year.  The black line on the graph below shows actual weekly data points and the gold line is the trend line.  It is not entirely uncommon to see the data points jump up and down a bit, but to see the trend line going in to year long lows does not bode well for our local market.

After a huge run up in inventory levels over the past several weeks, the number of Louisville homes for sale seemed to take a pause and hold steady, at least for one week.  The past two or three weeks, when combined, saw a more than 20% increase in the number of homes for sale in Louisville.  My numbers might not match up with what the Courier Journal reports, or our local board, but that is because I am talking only about single family homes for sale in Louisville, or Jefferson County, not condos, and not Oldham or Shelby Counties either.  It will be interesting to watch this measurement over the next few weeks, to see if our inventory levels continue to rise, which would be a sign of a worsening market, or if some buyers come out and pick these homes up, and we see a drop in inventory, which would be a sign of a balancing market.  We can only hope, but I’m not optimistic.

Last week, I spent just a bit of time talking about how the median price of Louisville homes for sale had fallen to $145,000, well below the value set one year ago.  This past week’s measurement was flat and didn’t improve, or get worse, and continues to rest at $145,000.  The actual data points are shown in black, while the gold line is the 90 day rolling average, or trend line, of homes for sale Louisville, and as you can see, the trend line is heading down without any real curve towards a rebound.

I’m sure everybody is sick and tired of hearing about how soft the Louisville real estate market is, and how we are all hoping for better days ahead.  Well, let me pile on a bit and show you just how slow the market has gotten.  Here is a graph showing how long on average, homes for sale in Louisville are staying on the market.  Remember, they can leave the market for a number of reasons, being sold is only one.  But one year ago, the gold trend line showed a value of under 90 days on the market.  Last week’s measurement was above 170, a huge increase of over 100% in just over one year.  And the sad part is that I don’t see a lot of indicators giving me much hope that we will see a big rebound any time soon.

Normally, on a weekly basis I write short articles about home prices, days on market, inventory levels and the like.  Today, I wanted to branch out a bit, and put together a graph showing the relationship between homes for sale in Louisville, new listings and listings that are leaving the market, or being absorbed.  It is not abnormal to see new listings coming on to the market for significantly less than Louisville homes for sale, but the interesting nugget in the graph below is that homes being absorbed are showing just a bit higher pricing than the other two groups.  To make sense of that, it is important to note that a home being absorbed is different than being sold.  Sold homes count as being absorbed, because they no longer are for sale, but homes that are taken off the market because they didn’t sell also count as being absorbed.

The asking price of Louisville homes for sale has dropped even further, according to the latest measurements taken by Altos Research.  Just two weeks ago, the median asking price of single family homes in Louisville was about $150,000, but the latest measurement shows a drop of $5,000, showing a new asking price of $145,000, well below the median price just one year ago of $159,000.   This is one statistic to keep in mind when you overhear discussions about whether or not this coming year in real estate is going to be better than last year.

The number of days that homes for sale in Louisville Ky are staying on the market is still trending up, from 80 days one year ago, all the way up to 170 days as of last week.  The gold line on the graph is the 90 day rolling average, or the trend line, while the black line shows actual weekly data points.  As you can see, it looks like there has only been one or two downward spikes in the weekly data, which isn’t enough to influence the trend line and bend it down.  As a result, the trend line has moved unfailingly in one direction over the past year for the entire Louisville real estate market.

Louisville homes for sale inventory levels spiked quite a bit this past week, with over 500 homes coming on to the market, taking the total number of single family homes for sale in the city of Louisville to a hair over 4,500 properties.  Just last week, that measurement was at 3,950, meaning there are about 550 more homes for sale today than there were just last week, which works out to be a 14% rise in the number of available properties.  As spring continues to approach, and hope springs eternal, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a continue run of new listings coming on to the market.  Another thought is that there might be a large number of home owners who failed to sell their home last year, who waited the holidays out, and are now getting ready to try again, which would be a second group of sellers on top of the normal spring surge.  If this doubly large surge is coupled with a continued shortage of buyers, the time on market for sellers is going to rise through the roof.