The number of single family homes for sale in the Louisville real estate market has skyrocketed in the last several weeks, going from about 3,900 homes for sale in Jefferson County all the way up to well over 5,000 homes, and increase of over 25% in about just one month. Last week’s measurement had seen the market treading water, without really adding many new listings, but this week saw another rise in the inventory levels for Louisville. I know a lot of Realtors who are talking to anyone who will listen that we have hit the bottom of our down market, and that its sunny skies ahead. But with numbers like these, I don’t see much reason to be so optimistic. Unless there is a huge number of buyers running out to the market soon, which I doubt, this huge influx in inventory will depress prices even more while driving up the amount of time homes are staying on the market.
Louisville homes for sale have seen their asking price drop dramatically from summer highs of around $170,000 down to $150,000 and below. For the past several weeks, the price of homes for sale in the Louisville real estate market has held steady at $145,000, the lowest value we have seen in over a year. The black line on the graph below shows actual weekly data points and the gold line is the trend line. It is not entirely uncommon to see the data points jump up and down a bit, but to see the trend line going in to year long lows does not bode well for our local market.
This is not a surprising post, or finding, but Louisville homes for sale are staying on the market longer and longer, and are staying on the market way longer today than they were this time last year. Looking at the graph below, you can see that in late February of 2009, Louisville homes were staying on the market an average of 100 days, according to the actual data points shown on the black line below. That number has grown to 180 days, or about 6 months. The gold line, which shows the trend line, calculated by rolling the average on a 90 day basis, also shows a huge increase over the same time frame, from 90 days to 175 days.
After completing a recent transaction for a Louisville real estate seller, I connected with my client on LinkedIn. On the same day, I received one of the very nicest and complimentary recommendations, or testimonials, ever. This testimonial can be found on my website as well, and is attributed there to the clients of my most recent transaction.
“Greg was an absolute professional and a pleasure to work with. I could not imagine a better real estate agent in the Louisville area. Greg was our answer to an uncertain market. His aggressive marketing strategy and negotiation tactics enabled us to sell our house for a price above the starting sale price quoted to us by other agents! Greg got us a deal on the sale of our home other agents said was impossible. He was also invaluable in the purchase of our new home. He was a calm voice of reason during a very emotional time! Again his negotiating abilities allowed my wife and I to purchase our dream home for a price we never imagined possible. I would recommend Greg to anyone buying or selling a home.”
After a huge run up in inventory levels over the past several weeks, the number of Louisville homes for sale seemed to take a pause and hold steady, at least for one week. The past two or three weeks, when combined, saw a more than 20% increase in the number of homes for sale in Louisville. My numbers might not match up with what the Courier Journal reports, or our local board, but that is because I am talking only about single family homes for sale in Louisville, or Jefferson County, not condos, and not Oldham or Shelby Counties either. It will be interesting to watch this measurement over the next few weeks, to see if our inventory levels continue to rise, which would be a sign of a worsening market, or if some buyers come out and pick these homes up, and we see a drop in inventory, which would be a sign of a balancing market. We can only hope, but I’m not optimistic.
Last week, I spent just a bit of time talking about how the median price of Louisville homes for sale had fallen to $145,000, well below the value set one year ago. This past week’s measurement was flat and didn’t improve, or get worse, and continues to rest at $145,000. The actual data points are shown in black, while the gold line is the 90 day rolling average, or trend line, of homes for sale Louisville, and as you can see, the trend line is heading down without any real curve towards a rebound.
I’m sure everybody is sick and tired of hearing about how soft the Louisville real estate market is, and how we are all hoping for better days ahead. Well, let me pile on a bit and show you just how slow the market has gotten. Here is a graph showing how long on average, homes for sale in Louisville are staying on the market. Remember, they can leave the market for a number of reasons, being sold is only one. But one year ago, the gold trend line showed a value of under 90 days on the market. Last week’s measurement was above 170, a huge increase of over 100% in just over one year. And the sad part is that I don’t see a lot of indicators giving me much hope that we will see a big rebound any time soon.
As a local real estate agent, and also a resident, of the St Matthews neighborhood in Louisville, I probably have driven on, or by, almost every street in the area. Not that I’m bragging, that would be a pretty boring brag, but on occassion, I actually have a video camera with me, or maybe I’ll use my iPhone sometimes, but I like to take really short video clips of different parts of different neighborhoods to give people an idea of what that part of town looks like. On this day, I was on my way to meet someone who lives close to Seneca Park, so up goes my iPhone, and the video below is what you get:
As I drive through the Highlands on an almost daily basis, I normally don’t carry my video camera with me. But on some days, I have it along. Or maybe I decide to throw my iPhone in the front dash and take a short video to help the curious get a better idea of just what makes the Highlands such a special part of Louisville. On this video, I drove through a few streets in and around Cherokee Triangle in the Highlands.
The median asking price of homes for sale in the Louisville Ky real estate market held steady this past week. That’s my attempt at being positive. For one week the asking price didn’t fall, which I suppose is good news, given how far the asking price of Louisville homes has fallen recently. Over the past few months, the median asking price of Louisville homes for sale has fallen from $170,000 down to the most recent weekly measurement of $145,000, a drop of $25,000!
