The number of single family homes for sale in the Louisville real estate market has skyrocketed in the last several weeks, going from about 3,900 homes for sale in Jefferson County all the way up to well over 5,000 homes, and increase of over 25% in about just one month.  Last week’s measurement had seen the market treading water, without really adding many new listings, but this week saw another rise in the inventory levels for Louisville.  I know a lot of Realtors who are talking to anyone who will listen that we have hit the bottom of our down market, and that its sunny skies ahead.  But with numbers like these, I don’t see much reason to be so optimistic.  Unless there is a huge number of buyers running out to the market soon, which I doubt, this huge influx in inventory will depress prices even more while driving up the amount of time homes are staying on the market.

Louisville homes for sale have seen their asking price drop dramatically from summer highs of around $170,000 down to $150,000 and below.  For the past several weeks, the price of homes for sale in the Louisville real estate market has held steady at $145,000, the lowest value we have seen in over a year.  The black line on the graph below shows actual weekly data points and the gold line is the trend line.  It is not entirely uncommon to see the data points jump up and down a bit, but to see the trend line going in to year long lows does not bode well for our local market.

This is not a surprising post, or finding, but Louisville homes for sale are staying on the market longer and longer, and are staying on the market way longer today than they were this time last year.  Looking at the graph below, you can see that in late February of 2009, Louisville homes were staying on the market an average of 100 days, according to the actual data points shown on the black line below.  That number has grown to 180 days, or about 6 months.  The gold line, which shows the trend line, calculated by rolling the average on a 90 day basis, also shows a huge increase over the same time frame, from 90 days to 175 days.

After a huge run up in inventory levels over the past several weeks, the number of Louisville homes for sale seemed to take a pause and hold steady, at least for one week.  The past two or three weeks, when combined, saw a more than 20% increase in the number of homes for sale in Louisville.  My numbers might not match up with what the Courier Journal reports, or our local board, but that is because I am talking only about single family homes for sale in Louisville, or Jefferson County, not condos, and not Oldham or Shelby Counties either.  It will be interesting to watch this measurement over the next few weeks, to see if our inventory levels continue to rise, which would be a sign of a worsening market, or if some buyers come out and pick these homes up, and we see a drop in inventory, which would be a sign of a balancing market.  We can only hope, but I’m not optimistic.

Last week, I spent just a bit of time talking about how the median price of Louisville homes for sale had fallen to $145,000, well below the value set one year ago.  This past week’s measurement was flat and didn’t improve, or get worse, and continues to rest at $145,000.  The actual data points are shown in black, while the gold line is the 90 day rolling average, or trend line, of homes for sale Louisville, and as you can see, the trend line is heading down without any real curve towards a rebound.

I’m sure everybody is sick and tired of hearing about how soft the Louisville real estate market is, and how we are all hoping for better days ahead.  Well, let me pile on a bit and show you just how slow the market has gotten.  Here is a graph showing how long on average, homes for sale in Louisville are staying on the market.  Remember, they can leave the market for a number of reasons, being sold is only one.  But one year ago, the gold trend line showed a value of under 90 days on the market.  Last week’s measurement was above 170, a huge increase of over 100% in just over one year.  And the sad part is that I don’t see a lot of indicators giving me much hope that we will see a big rebound any time soon.

The median asking price of homes for sale in the Louisville Ky real estate market held steady this past week.  That’s my attempt at being positive.  For one week the asking price didn’t fall, which I suppose is good news, given how far the asking price of Louisville homes has fallen recently.  Over the past few months, the median asking price of Louisville homes for sale has fallen from $170,000 down to the most recent weekly measurement of $145,000, a drop of $25,000!

Louisville homes for sale are experiencing a worsening market, as there seem to be fewer buyers than before, homes are staying on the market longer, asking prices are dropping and even more homes are coming on to the market in hopes of a sale.  According to data collected by Altos Research, it is apparent that our local real estate market is in worse shape than this time last year, and quite a bit worse than the summer months.  Combining may different statistical criteria, Altos then releases a new data point, called the Median Market Action Index, which is basically a measure of how well homes are selling and answers a basic question:  Are we in a buyers market, or a sellers market?

When looking at the chart above, remember that the higher the measurement, the closer the Louisville real estate market is to a seller’s market, and the lower the measurement, the further into a buyer’s market we are in, with a measurement of 30 signifying a neutral market.  Louisville hasn’t seen a neutral market in quite awhile, but it appears that we are drifting further into a buyers market than we have seen in a long time.  And given the severity of the recent decline, I’m afraid we might not turn out of this market any time soon.